Recession and market risk indicators: 10 current readings, one score
As of 13 October 2026, the Zensei Index scores 28.5 out of 100, which Zensei labels Vulnerable. The score measures risk: 0 is calm and 100 is maximum risk, so a lower score is healthier. 1 of 10 indicators shows Stress, Danger or Activated today.
The 10 indicators today
As of , each row shows the newest reading, its status on the Index dashboard and its group. Open a row for the history chart, the monthly values and what the status means.
| Indicator | Reading | Status | Group | Share of group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings real yield Real forward earnings yield | 1.43% | Danger | Structural conditions | 22% |
| Credit risk environment High-yield spread over real yields | 5.24 pts | Watch | Structural conditions | 18% |
| Real policy rate Real fed funds rate | 1.30% | Watch | Structural conditions | 30% |
| Fed liquidity regime Fed balance sheet z-score | +0.51 | Clear | Structural conditions | 10% |
| Risk appetite ratio Tech vs staples ratio | 2.33 | Clear | Structural conditions | 20% |
| Volatility term structure VIX3M/VIX ratio | 1.18 | Inactive | Tactical filters | 60% |
| Intraday market dislocation 200-hour S&P 500 change | +1.80% | Inactive | Tactical filters | 40% |
| Market volatility VIX | 15.21 | Inactive | Regime confirmations | 30% |
| Price trend breakdown S&P 500 trend gap | 7.6% above 200-day avg | Inactive | Regime confirmations | 40% |
| Cross-asset stress leadership VXX leadership count | 0 of 3 horizons | Inactive | Regime confirmations | 30% |
Three groups of market risk indicators
Structural conditions
5 indicatorsWhether the environment is fundamentally supportive or constrained.
Tactical filters
2 indicatorsShort-term dislocations, separating real volatility from noise.
Regime confirmations
3 indicatorsWhether a regime shift is visible in price and cross-asset behavior.
Recession indicators: common questions
What is a recession indicator?
A recession indicator is a measurement that people watch for signs of economic or market stress, such as credit spreads, real interest rates, central bank liquidity, volatility and price trends. Zensei tracks ten of these readings for US stocks. It reports their state today. It does not forecast a recession.
Which indicators are at stress today?
As of 13 October 2026, 1 of 10 indicators shows Stress, Danger or Activated: forward earnings real yield. 2 more show Watch: credit risk environment and real policy rate.
How does the Zensei Index combine the indicators?
Each indicator has a status. Zensei scores the statuses inside three groups: structural conditions, tactical filters and regime confirmations. Inside each group the weights add up to 100, so each group has its own score from 0 to 100. The final score combines the three groups. It runs from 0 (calm) to 100 (maximum risk), with four regimes: Supportive up to 20, Vulnerable up to 40, Stressed up to 70, Restrictive above 70. As of 13 October 2026, the score is 28.5 out of 100 (Vulnerable).
Does the Zensei Index predict a recession?
No. The score measures the risk in current conditions. It is not a prediction, a recession call or investment advice. Markets can rise in a restrictive regime and fall in a supportive one.
Analytics, not investment advice. The statuses describe current conditions; they do not predict prices or a recession.
Follow the score as it changes
The Zensei Index dashboard shows every indicator with its full chart and a written summary when the regime changes. See also S&P 500 market breadth.