Real policy rate today: real fed funds rate 1.30% (Watch)
As of 1 September 2026, the real fed funds rate reads 1.30%. One year earlier, on 1 September 2025, it was 1.20%. The Zensei Index rates the real policy rate indicator Watch on 1 September 2026: early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
Real interest rate chart: fed funds rate minus core inflation
A higher real rate means tighter policy and more stress.
Real fed funds rate, Jan 1958 to Sep 2026. Values updated monthly. Data as of .
Real fed funds rate: last value of each month
| Month | Date | Real fed funds rate | Fed funds rate | Core CPI inflation, 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 1.30% | 3.75% | — | |
| August 2026 | 1.18% | 3.63% | 2.45% | |
| July 2026 | 1.16% | 3.63% | 2.47% | |
| June 2026 | 1.06% | 3.63% | 2.57% | |
| May 2026 | 0.81% | 3.63% | 2.82% | |
| April 2026 | 0.90% | 3.64% | 2.74% | |
| March 2026 | 1.04% | 3.64% | 2.60% | |
| February 2026 | 1.17% | 3.64% | 2.47% | |
| January 2026 | 1.13% | 3.64% | 2.51% | |
| December 2025 | 1.07% | 3.72% | 2.65% | |
| November 2025 | 1.28% | 3.88% | 2.60% | |
| September 2025 | 1.20% | 4.22% | 3.02% |
What it measures
Measures the real return of holding cash.
The real policy rate measures the inflation-adjusted return of holding cash. It reflects how restrictive or accommodative monetary policy is in real terms.
Why it matters
When real rates are low, risk assets are favored. When they rise, cash becomes competitive with equities, acting as a structural headwind.
This indicator belongs to the structural conditions group: whether the environment is fundamentally supportive or constrained. It carries 30% of that group's weight.
How to read the status
The Index dashboard gives this indicator one of 4 statuses, from calm to stressed. A more stressed status adds more of the indicator's weight to its group score. A higher real rate means tighter policy and more stress.
- Clear
No stress. The reading sits in its calm range.
- WatchToday
Early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
- Stress
Confirmed stress. The reading is in its stress range.
- Danger
Full signal. The reading is at its most stressed level.
Real policy rate: common questions
What is the real fed funds rate today?
As of 1 September 2026, the real fed funds rate reads 1.30%. The Zensei Index rates the real policy rate indicator Watch: early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
What is the real interest rate today?
As of 1 September 2026, the real fed funds rate is 1.30%: the fed funds rate (3.75%) minus core CPI inflation over the past year (2.45%). Both sources publish monthly.
What does a rising real fed funds rate mean?
A rising real rate means cash pays more after inflation, so cash competes harder with stocks. In the Index, a higher real rate moves this indicator toward Danger. A lower real rate moves it toward Clear.
Where does the real policy rate data come from?
The effective federal funds rate (FRED series FEDFUNDS) and core CPI inflation over the past year (FRED series CPILFESL), both monthly. Zensei computes the indicator from these series.
How often does the real policy rate indicator update?
Both inputs publish once a month, so the reading changes once a month. Zensei recomputes the indicator after each new release. This page shows the newest value and its date.
Analytics, not investment advice. The status describes current conditions; it does not predict prices.
More market risk indicators
See all ten indicators in one score
The Zensei Index combines this reading with nine others into one risk score from 0 (calm) to 100 (maximum risk), with a written summary when conditions change.