10signals
3analytical layers
Multiasset classes
Hourlyscore refresh
As of , the Zensei Index reads 28.5 of 100: Vulnerable. Low scores mean calm conditions; high scores mean stress.
The Index reads ten structural, tactical and regime signals and combines them into one risk score. It measures risk conditions from market and macro data, not a market sentiment survey, so many readers check it next to sentiment gauges.
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One score, from low risk to high risk. Updated hourly.
Ten signals. Three layers of analysis. One reading, from calm (0) to stress (100). Glance at it and you know the market's posture.
The slow-moving forces that set the stage — real yields, credit, policy, liquidity, and appetite. Get these wrong and nothing else matters.
How much real return equities offer after inflation. High means a real cushion versus the inflation backdrop; low or negative means you're paying a lot for earnings and duration risk is rising.
The direction and force of central-bank liquidity — the tide under every asset. A negative impulse is a headwind, especially when other fragility signals are present.
The inflation-adjusted return on cash. Very positive means restrictive — higher hurdle rates, pressure on leverage, valuation-compression risk. Negative means accommodative.
Real borrowing costs across high-yield and investment-grade credit. Tight spreads signal supportive financing; widening spreads often precede equity weakness as credit tightens.
Markets reveal risk preference through leadership. Tech leading staples signals confidence; sustained defensive outperformance is an early warning of caution.
Fast filters that catch dislocations the structural layer can't see yet — the difference between last week's regime and this morning's.
Short-term vs medium-term implied volatility. When short-dated vol exceeds longer-dated (inversion), the market is pricing immediate, unexpected risk — a clean read on hedging urgency.
Unusually sharp moves within a single session — a proxy for forced selling and deleveraging. When it fires right after a vol spike, fear is turning into actual liquidation.
Independent signals that prove the regime is real — so you act on what the market is doing, not what you hope it's doing.
Whether volatility persists rather than spiking briefly. Sustained high VIX reflects deeper uncertainty and tends to extend drawdowns; calm VIX confirms a stable tape.
Whether the market has broken its long-term trend with negative momentum. A sustained break is the tape accepting lower prices — a confirmation, not a forecast.
Whether volatility outperforms other major assets across multiple windows. Persistent vol leadership marks systemic stress; isolated vol means stress is contained.
See each of the ten inputs with its current reading, status and history on the market risk indicators page.
The score refreshes every hour from daily and intraday inputs. Each signal shows the date of its newest observation.
