Credit risk environment today: high-yield spread over real yields 5.24 pts (Watch)
As of 8 October 2026, the high-yield spread over real yields reads 5.24 pts. One year earlier, on 8 October 2025, it was 4.78 pts. The Zensei Index rates the credit risk environment indicator Watch on 8 October 2026: early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
High yield credit spreads chart
A wider spread means more stress in corporate credit.
High-yield spread over real yield, Nov 2020 to Oct 2026. Values updated daily. Data as of .
High-yield spread over real yields: last value of each month
| Month | Date | High-yield spread over real yield | BBB spread over real yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 5.24 pts | 3.27 pts | |
| September 2026 | 5.23 pts | 3.29 pts | |
| August 2026 | 4.68 pts | 3.22 pts | |
| July 2026 | 4.81 pts | 3.16 pts | |
| June 2026 | 4.79 pts | 3.17 pts | |
| May 2026 | 4.81 pts | 3.23 pts | |
| April 2026 | 4.93 pts | 3.38 pts | |
| March 2026 | 5.25 pts | 3.36 pts | |
| February 2026 | 4.94 pts | 3.20 pts | |
| January 2026 | 4.76 pts | 3.14 pts | |
| December 2025 | 4.60 pts | 3.11 pts | |
| November 2025 | 4.77 pts | 3.19 pts |
What it measures
Tracks stress in corporate credit markets.
This indicator measures stress in corporate credit by tracking real borrowing costs across high-yield and investment-grade bonds.
Why it matters
Low credit stress signals supportive financing conditions. Rising stress often precedes equity vulnerability, as tighter credit constrains growth and risk-taking.
This indicator belongs to the structural conditions group: whether the environment is fundamentally supportive or constrained. It carries 18% of that group's weight.
How to read the status
The Index dashboard gives this indicator one of 4 statuses, from calm to stressed. A more stressed status adds more of the indicator's weight to its group score. A wider spread means more stress in corporate credit.
- Clear
No stress. The reading sits in its calm range.
- WatchToday
Early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
- Stress
Confirmed stress. The reading is in its stress range.
- Danger
Full signal. The reading is at its most stressed level.
Credit risk environment: common questions
What is the high-yield spread over real yields today?
As of 8 October 2026, the high-yield spread over real yields reads 5.24 pts. The Zensei Index rates the credit risk environment indicator Watch: early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
What are credit spreads today?
As of 8 October 2026, the high-yield spread over real yields is 5.24 percentage points and the BBB investment-grade spread over real yields is 3.27 percentage points. Zensei measures both against the 10-year real Treasury yield, so they show the extra yield above a real, inflation-protected rate. The usual option-adjusted spread (OAS) measures against nominal Treasuries, so it is a different number.
What does a rising high-yield spread over real yields mean?
A rising spread means investors ask for more extra yield to hold risky corporate bonds. In the Index, a wider spread moves the credit indicator toward Stress and Danger. A narrower spread moves it toward Clear.
Where does the credit risk environment data come from?
ICE BofA US High Yield and BBB corporate bond effective yields, and the 10-year real (inflation-protected) Treasury yield, from FRED (series BAMLH0A0HYM2EY, BAMLC0A4CBBBEY and DFII10). Zensei computes the indicator from these series.
How often does the credit risk environment indicator update?
The source data updates once per US trading day. Zensei recomputes the indicator after each new value. This page shows the newest value and its date.
Analytics, not investment advice. The status describes current conditions; it does not predict prices.
More market risk indicators
See all ten indicators in one score
The Zensei Index combines this reading with nine others into one risk score from 0 (calm) to 100 (maximum risk), with a written summary when conditions change.