Forward earnings real yield today: real earnings yield 1.43% (Danger)
As of 13 October 2026, the real forward earnings yield reads 1.43%. The Zensei Index rates the forward earnings real yield indicator Danger on 13 October 2026: full signal. The reading is at its most stressed level.
10-year breakeven inflation rate and the real earnings yield
A lower real earnings yield means more stress: stocks pay less after inflation.
Real forward earnings yield, Feb 2026 to Oct 2026. Values updated daily. Data as of .
Real forward earnings yield: last value of each month
| Month | Date | Real forward earnings yield | 10-year breakeven inflation | Forward earnings yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 1.43% | 2.33% | 3.76% | |
| September 2026 | 1.48% | 2.36% | 3.84% | |
| August 2026 | 1.51% | 2.31% | 3.82% | |
| July 2026 | 1.64% | 2.28% | 3.92% | |
| June 2026 | 1.67% | 2.24% | 3.91% | |
| May 2026 | 1.49% | 2.38% | 3.87% | |
| April 2026 | 1.61% | 2.46% | 4.07% | |
| March 2026 | 2.20% | 2.30% | 4.50% | |
| February 2026 | 2.02% | 2.25% | 4.27% |
What it measures
Measures how well equities compensate investors after inflation.
This indicator measures how much real return equities offer after accounting for inflation.
Why it matters
It compares expected future earnings to market-implied inflation to assess whether stocks are properly compensated in real terms.
When real equity yields are high, equities tend to offer attractive long-term value. When they are low or negative, risk compensation is poor, and markets become more fragile.
This indicator belongs to the structural conditions group: whether the environment is fundamentally supportive or constrained. It carries 22% of that group's weight.
How to read the status
The Index dashboard gives this indicator one of 4 statuses, from calm to stressed. A more stressed status adds more of the indicator's weight to its group score. A lower real earnings yield means more stress: stocks pay less after inflation.
- Clear
No stress. The reading sits in its calm range.
- Watch
Early warning. The reading moves toward stress.
- Stress
Confirmed stress. The reading is in its stress range.
- DangerToday
Full signal. The reading is at its most stressed level.
Forward earnings real yield: common questions
What is the real forward earnings yield today?
As of 13 October 2026, the real forward earnings yield reads 1.43%. The Zensei Index rates the forward earnings real yield indicator Danger: full signal. The reading is at its most stressed level.
What is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate today?
As of 13 October 2026, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (FRED series T10YIE) is 2.33%. It is the yearly inflation rate the bond market prices for the next ten years: the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year inflation-protected (TIPS) yield. Zensei takes it away from the S&P 500 forward earnings yield to get the real earnings yield.
What does a rising real forward earnings yield mean?
A rising real earnings yield means stocks offer more expected earnings per dollar of price, after inflation. In the Index, a higher reading moves this indicator toward Clear. A falling reading moves it toward Danger.
Where does the forward earnings real yield data come from?
Forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500, the S&P 500 index level, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED series T10YIE). Zensei computes the indicator from these series.
How often does the forward earnings real yield indicator update?
The source data updates once per US trading day. Zensei recomputes the indicator after each new value. This page shows the newest value and its date.
Analytics, not investment advice. The status describes current conditions; it does not predict prices.
More market risk indicators
See all ten indicators in one score
The Zensei Index combines this reading with nine others into one risk score from 0 (calm) to 100 (maximum risk), with a written summary when conditions change.