20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the S&P 500 (TLT): is it outperforming?
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is trailing the S&P 500, over the past month and over the longer run. TLT trails the S&P 500 by 5.2 points over one month and ranks #67 of 115 groups Zensei tracks.
Where 20+ year treasury bond stands now
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ranks #67 of the 115 groups Zensei tracks by one-month return against the S&P 500. It is out of favor: it trails the S&P 500 on both rotation windows — 5.2 points behind over the past month and 5.0 points behind over the longer, time-shifted window. That is the Underperformers quadrant.
On the shorter tape, TLT's momentum is weakening: the intraday trend that carried the move is cooling across the shorter windows. TLT's relative-strength line has broken below its long-term average — the long-term outperformance trend is no longer intact. Both signals point the same direction here: the market is not rewarding this group on either horizon.
The thing to watch from here is the one-month spread: underperformers only become interesting when the recent window turns positive first — until then, the market is voting elsewhere.
Bonds vs stocks: TLT vs SPY head-to-head returns
Over the week to 12 October 2026, TLT rose 1.2% while the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The table compares TLT and SPY (the S&P 500) over every window Zensei tracks. The spread is the difference: positive means TLT won that window.
Prices as of · computed from daily adjusted closes · how we measure
20+ Year Treasury Bond on the rotation map, against the 11 broad S&P 500 sectors. Vertical: 1-month spread vs the S&P 500. Horizontal: the longer, time-shifted window.
20+ Year Treasury Bond vs the market — common questions
Bonds vs stocks: which did better this month?
Stocks did. As of 12 October 2026, TLT trailed the stock market (the S&P 500, SPY) by 5.2 points over the past month.
Is 20+ year treasury bond outperforming the S&P 500?
No. As of 12 October 2026, TLT trails the S&P 500 by 5.2 points over the past month.
What is TLT?
TLT is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. Zensei uses it to measure 20+ year treasury bond against the S&P 500 (SPY).
What quadrant is 20+ year treasury bond in right now?
As of 12 October 2026, 20+ year treasury bond is in the Underperformers quadrant — trailing the S&P 500 on both windows. The Zensei methodology page explains the quadrants.
Recent changes
- ·First tracked: trailing the market
Related sectors
Track 20+ year treasury bond against the whole market
Zensei Edge maps 100+ sectors and themes against the S&P 500 — with the stocks inside each one, rotation history and alerts when leadership changes hands.
Compare all sectors: Sector heat map · Sector P/E ratios